Great Expectations by James W Monroe

Iraq- Iran- North Korea- and now Syria. The same pattern emerges: a ‘rogue state’ with a madman dictator ruling a repressive, brutal regime. Add human rights abuses, suspicions (founded or not) of WMD, and the regime posing a potential genuine threat to the West. The West shows genuine, deep, moral and political outrage, with impassioned speeches at the UN and similar bodies. Sweeping economic and political sanctions follow, as well as ‘pariah state’ status for the nation in question, in a diplomatic response evocative of Abyssinian and appeasement in the 1930’s.

The story changed, however, with Syria. Mediation efforts have been, to an extent, successful, and, upon evidence of potential use of chemical weapons against Syrians, President Obama gave his stern warning that ‘there would be consequences’ if President Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. Such a warning was echoed By William Hague: ‘[Obama] warned of serious consequences and he means it’. While such a stance is admirable, it is regretfully unlikely to be backed up by strong action by either Obama facing up to the Republicans over the fiscal cliff of US debt, or the Conservative front bench dealing with the political fallout from the Autumn Statement and the Leveson report- another inevitability.

Many commentators predicted the main recommendation of the report (statutory regulation underpinned by statute). Cameron’s total endorsement of Leveson in one sentence, but not backing the key recommendation in another, was similarly predictable of Coalition politics. Subsequent actions, such as productive meetings with senior media officials, drafting legislation and starting to devise a new regulatory body are also a hallmark of the Coalition; definite forward progress with one hand, but the other hand giving nothing definitive, swift and far reaching (but once again, admittedly matters are a lot more complicated, making such affirmative action hard to implement). However, with such strong cross party consensus in Parliament, the media anxious to put things right, and a groundswell of public support, the hope is there that mechanisms can be put in place to prevent another comparative phone hacking episode.

Both internationally and domestically, the same old stories emerge, PG Wodehouse style. The difference for both Syrians being killed in Damascus and the victims of phone hacking is that this time there is the potential for a different outcome, turning a Wodehouse story into an unpredictable Saki story (without the dry humour).

James W Monroe
Law Student

BPP University College